How to avoid a Climate Disaster
from Bill Gates
Last updated
from Bill Gates
Last updated
#1 NEW YORK TIMES BEST SELLER
In this urgent, authoritative book, Bill Gates sets out a wide-ranging, practical—and accessible—plan for how the world can get to zero greenhouse gas emissions in time to avoid a climate catastrophe. Bill Gates has spent a decade investigating the causes and effects of climate change. With the help of experts in the fields of physics, chemistry, biology, engineering, political science, and finance, he has focused on what must be done in order to stop the planet’s slide to certain environmental disaster. In this book, he not only explains why we need to work toward net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases, but also details what we need to do to achieve this profoundly important goal. He gives us a clear-eyed description of the challenges we face. Drawing on his understanding of innovation and what it takes to get new ideas into the market, he describes the areas in which technology is already helping to reduce emissions, where and how the current technology can be made to function more effectively, where breakthrough technologies are needed, and who is working on these essential innovations. Finally, he lays out a concrete, practical plan for achieving the goal of zero emissions—suggesting not only policies that governments should adopt, but what we as individuals can do to keep our government, our employers, and ourselves accountable in this crucial enterprise. As Bill Gates makes clear, achieving zero emissions will not be simple or easy to do, but if we follow the plan he sets out here, it is a goal firmly within our reach.
2 numbers you need to know about climate :
51 billion
Tons of greenhouse gases the world typically adds to the atmosphere every year
Where we are today
zero
What we need to aim for
Convinced of 3 things
To avoid a climate disaster, we have to get to zero
We need to deploy the tools we already have, like solar and wind, faster and smarter
And we need to create and roll out breakthrough technologies that can take us the rest of the way
The climate is like a bathtub that's slowly filling up with water. Even if we slow the flow of water to a trickle, the tub will eventually fill up and water will come spilling out onto the floor.
COVID-19
5 percent reduction
Because economic activity has slowed down
Getting to zero doesn't mean "zero"
It means "near net zero"
The earth is warming
Because of human activity
We have every reason to believe that at some point the impact will be catastrophic
We don't know precisely WHEN (30 years ? 50 years ? ...)
We need to act now
Already raised 1 degree Celsius since preindustrial times
mid-century : probably between 1.5 and 3 degrees Celsius
end of century : between 4 and 8 degrees Celsius
A 2-degree rise wouldn't simply be 33 percent worse than 1.5
Could be 100 percent worse
Twice as many people would have trouble getting clean water
Corn production in the tropics would go down twice as much
Mosquitoes will start living in new places
Malaria
Heatstroke will be another major problem
Because of humidity
Using data from the Spanish flu of 1918and COVID-19
The amount by which a global pandemic increases the global mortality rate : 14 deaths per 100,000 people each year
By mid-century climate change could represent the same amount than COVID-19 :
14 deaths per 100,000 people each year
By the end of century : could be responsible for
75 extra deaths per 100,000 people each year
By 2100 could be five times as deadly than COVID
2 things we can do about it
Adaptation : minimize the impact of the changes that are already here and that we know are coming
Mitigation : stop adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere
Biggest emitters (richest countries) have to get top net-zero emissions by 2050
Fossil fuels are like water
"important realities are often the ones that are the hardest to see and talk about" - David Foster Wallace
Fossil fuels are like that
Oil
The world uses more than 4 billion gallons every day
Oil is cheaper than a soft drink
It's not just the rich world
almost everywhere people are living longer and healthier lives
Would be immoral and impractical to try to stop people who are lower down on the economic ladder from climbing up
Can't expect poor people to stay poor because rich countries emitted too many greenhouse gases
We need to make it possible for low-income people to climb the ladder without making climate change worse.
Our laws and regulations are so outdated
Environmental laws and regulations weren't designed with climate change in mind
Clean Air Act -> 1970
We need to build a consensus that doesn't exist and create public policies to push a transition that would not happen otherwise
Don't despair, we can do this
Build a mental framework
Gave a sense of how much was a lot and how much was a little
How much of the 51 Billion Tons are we talking about ?
Convert numbers into a percentage of the annual total of 51 billion tons
What's your plan for Cement ?
A shorthand reminder that if you're trying to come up with a comprehensive plan for climate change, you have to account for much than electricity and cars
Emissions come from 5 different activities
We need solutions in all of them
3. How much power are we talking about?
Whenever you hear : | Think |
Kilowatt | House |
Gigawatt | City |
A hundred or more gigawatts | big country |
4. How much space do you need ?
If someone tells you that some source : wind, solar, nuclear, ... can supply all the energy the world needs
Find out how much space will be required to produce that much energy
Examples : Wind -> 1-2 Watts per square meter, Fossil Fuels -> 500-10,000 Watts per Square Meter
5. How much this is going to cost ?
Most of the zero-carbon solutions are more expensive than their fossil-fuel counterparts
Because the prices don't reflect the environmental damage they influct
These additional costs are what I call Green Premiums
The difference between the 2 prices
It can be negative : greeen can be cheaper than sticking with fossil fuels
We need the premiums to be so low that everyone will be able to decarbonize.
27 percent of 51 billion tons per year
What we like from electricity : a cheap source of energy always available
Getting all the world's electricity from clean source won't be easy
Fossil fuels account for two-thirds of all electricity worldwide
Coal : 36%
Naturals Gas : 23%
Hydropower : 16%
Nuclear : 10%
Renewables : 11%
Oil : 3%
Other : 1%
Can we turn this around and get all the electricity we'll need without any greenhouse gas emissions ?
We can eliminate our emissions with only a modest Green Premium
The premium for electricity :
Additional cost of getting all our power from non-emitting sources :
wind, solar, nuclear, coal, natural gas fired equipped with devices that capture the carbon they produce
Changing America's system to zero carbon
Raise retail average rates by between 1.3 and 1.7 cents per kilowatt-hour
15% more than what people pay now
Adds up to a Green Premium : 18$ a month for the average home
1 problem is that fossil fuels are so cheap
Their prices don't factor in the true cost of climate change
To get close to 100% renewable resources
We'd have to move lots of clean energy from where it's made (sunny places, windly regions) to where it's needed
Sun / wind = intermittent sources
How to store it ?
Extremely difficult / expensive to store electricity on a large scale
Every path to zero in the U.S will require
Install as much wind and solar power as we can build and find room for it
Nuclear fission : Only carbon-free energy source that can reliably deliver power day and night
The process of getting energy by splitting atoms apart
Problems :
Human error can cause accidents
Uranium can be converted for use in weapons
Waste is dangerous and hard to store
Nuclear fusion : Instead of getting energy from splitting atoms apart -> it involves pushing them together, or fusing them
At least a decade away from supplying electricity to consumers
No chain reaction to run out of control
Fusion ceases as soon as you stop supplying fuel or switch off the device containing the plasma
Offshore wind : putting wind turbines in an ocean or other body of water
Geothermal : Deep underground, are hot rocks that can be used to generate carbon-free electricity
Amount of energy we get per square meter is quite low
Batteries : hard to improve on them
Can improve by a factor of 3 but by a factor of 50
Pumped hydro : When electricity is cheap you pump water up a hill into a reservoir, then when demand for power goes up, let the water flow back down the hill -> generate electricity from it
Thermal storage : When electricity is cheap, use it to heat up some material
Cheap hydrogen
Capturing carbon : Suck up the carbon dioxide before it hits the atmosphere
Expensive to buy and operate
Using less : using power more efficiently
31 percent of 51 billion tons per year
Every year America alone produces more than 96 millions tons of cement
600 pounds for every person in the country
Americans use as much steel as cement
Use tons of steel, cement, glass, plastic
Emits lots of greenhouse gases
Responsible for about a third of all emissions worldwide
Making 1 ton of steel produces about 1.8 tons of carbon dioxide
Different ways :
Using public policies to create demand for clean products
Create incentives or requirements to buy zero-carbon cement or steel
Take recycled CO2
Inject it back into the cement
19 percent of 51 billion tons a year
Raising animals for food is a major contributor of greenhouse gas emissions
Ranks as the highest contributor in the sector that experts call "agriculture, forestry, and other land use"
Composition : 70% agriculture / 30% deforestation
With agriculture main culprit = methane
Causes 28 times more warming per molecule than CO2 over the course of a century
Nitrous oxide causes 265 times more warming
If we want to get near net-zero emissions
Figure out how to grow plants and raise animals while reducing and eventually eliminating greenhouse gases
Have to do something about deforestation and other uses of land
Global population is headed toward 10 billion people by 2100
40% more people
We'll need more than 40% more food too
As people get richer, they eat more calories
We can cut down on meat eating while still enjoying the taste of meat
Plant based meat
Artificial meats
Grow the meat itself in labs
Cell based meat
Wasting less of it
In Europe, Industrialized parts of Asia, Sub-Saharian Africa : 20% of food is simply thrown away
US : 40%
Most important solution = behavior change
It's been estimated that if we couldn't make synthetic fertilizer
The world's population would be 40 to 50 percent smaller
No practical zero-carbon alternative for fertilizer right now
Deforestation : would be easier to stop
Incentives to cut down trees are stronger than the incentives to leave them alone
We need political / economic solutions
How much CO2 can a tree absorb in its lifetime :
4 tons over the course of 40 years
How long will the tree survive ?
If it burns down all the CO2 it was storing will be released into the atmosphere
16 percent of 51 billion tons a year
Gas contains an amazing amount of energy
Gasoline is remarkably cheap
Transportation is not the biggest cause of emissions worldwide
BUT number one in the United States
47% : passengers cars
All-electric car ?
To avoid carbon emissions -> only if we generate electricity from 0 carbon-sources
10% : airplanes
10% : cargo / cruise ships
30% : garbage trucks, buses, 18-wheelers
4 ways to cut down on emissions from transportation :
Do less of it : walking, biking, car-pooling
Use fewer carbon-intensive materials in making-cars
Use fuels more efficiently
Switch to electric vehicles / alternative fuels
8 - How we keep cool and stay warm7 percent of 51 billion tons a year
90% of American houses have some types of air conditioner
The biggest consumer of electricity you own
To get to zero we will need a lot of innovation
The cruel injustice is that even though the world's poor are doing essentially nothing to cause climate change, they're going to suffer the most from it
Science tells us that in order to avoid a climate catastrophe, rich countries should reach net-zero emissions by 2050.
| Technologies needed | |
|---|---|
Hydrogen produced without emitting carbon | Nuclear fusion |
Grid-scale electricity storage that can last a full season | Carbon capture (both direct air and point capture) |
Electrofuels | Underground electricity transmission |
Advanced biofuels | Zero-carbon plastics |
Zero-carbon cement | Geothermal energy |
Zero-carbon steel | Pumped hydro |
Plant and cell-based meat and dairy | Thermal storage |
Zero-carbon fertilizer | Drought and flood-tolerant food crops |
Next-generation nuclear fission | Zero-carbon alternatives to palm oil |
To get these technologies ready soon :
Quintuple clean energy and climate-related R&D over the next decade
Make bigger bets on high-risk, high reward R&D projects
Match R&D with our greatest needs
Work with the industry from the beginning
Create incentives that lower costs and reduce risk
Tax credits, loan guarantees
Can help reduce the Green Premiums
Build the infrastructure that will get new technologies to market
Change the rules so new technologies can compete
Put a price on carbon
Putting a price on carbon is one of the most important things we can do to eliminate Green Premiums
Clean electricity standards
Clean fuel standards
Clean product standards
Setting standards in procurement programs for example
Personal action is important for the signals
elected officials will adopt specific plans if their voters demand it
So ?
Make calls, write letters, attend town halls
Run for office
The market is ruled by supply and demand -> we can have a huge impact on the demand side
Sign up for a green pricing program with you electricity utility
Reduce your home's emissions
Buy an electric car
Try a plant-based burger
Push your company to do its part :
Set up an internal carbon tax
Prioritize innovation in low-carbon solutions
Be an early adopter
Engage in the policy-making process
Businesses should be champion getting to zero
Connect with government funded research
Help early-stage innovators get across the valley of death
